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26 01 14 berkeley earth webi

rohde

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cloud cover decreased
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2023 2025 warming spike

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rohde 2026 warming spike.png
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imbalance of earths incoming and outgoing radiation power.
error margins have not been given in this talk.

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rohde 2026 earths power imbalance.png
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marine sulfur reduction
sulfur - cloud cover relation is also important

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rohde 26 sulfur reduction .png
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expected vs real warming

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rohde 2026 exected vs real warming.png
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yearly temp uncertainties
the last 3 years are sticking out

rohde 2026 probability distributions of yearly global temp means.png

temp anomaly distribution

rohde 2026 global temp distribution 1.png

areas of warmest, 2nd warmes &c avg temp
interestingly, the record areas are often not the areas with a high average warming over ~ 50 years, but neighboring ones.
it seems as if high-warming areas have had less warming recently, while neighboring areas kind of pulled up.

rohde 2026 areas of warmest 2nd warmest etc year.png

hunga tonga eruption

sulfur poor, water rich,
first cooling from sulfur, afterwards warming with high uncertainty
modest contribution

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rohde 2026 hunga tonga sulfur water.png
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ocean average temperature

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rohde 2026 ocean temperature.png
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current enso state

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rohde 2026 enso state timeline.png
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new el nino possible end 2026
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temp prediction to 2026

rohde 2026 global avg temp timeline with 2026 prediction.png

short term bump or trend change?

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rohde 2026 monthly temps.png
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is not with hansen who is "speculating"
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question

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albedo has hit record low, with north pacific and atlantic having the biggest effect
85% less shipping emissions, -40% (??) of chinese emissions
helen gossling: cloud reduction larger than we expect from aerosol reduction. there might be a stronger climate response to warming than currently assumed.

..

CO2 went a little down, total GHG a bit up. less then 1% p a in the last 15 years. but we got to cut emissions

crossing the paris line 2030. when +2C?

we'll reach 1.5 before 2030!
uncertainty bc of wheather

did adding new data from preindustrial change the berkeley earth data?

before 1850 a lot of data have been added.
changes are within uncertainty bounds
> 1880 only a few % additional data
new data set glosat from UK. before 1850 still high uncertainty.

noaa trend lower than other groups. why?

diff 1 (most of the differences): reconstruction < 1900,
diff 2: sst record data sets. which are somewhat different

computer updates broke the data integration workflow + staff reductions

sulfur reduction unintended geoengineering. is geoengineerin possible

o c it is possible. but it is a good idea? can we stop it in case? aerosols introduce a lot uncertainty.

ai energy demand impact?

not much so far. 2% of elect4ricity 20% in us 16% of world
so not much

water vapor is the most important GHG, but it rains out very quickly, in 2 weeks. except in the upper atmosphere, where it sticks around longer. 7% more for every K warmer. a feedback.

error margins of energy imbalance data (CERES)?

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have to look it up
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